Thoughts for those nearing or early in retirement
Most mornings now begin the same way. Coffee, a glance at the phone, and a fresh wave of unsettling news: wars that show no sign of ending, talk of tariffs and deficits, markets that rise and fall on a single remark. By the time breakfast is over, it can feel as if the ground has shifted again.
For most of my working life, news like this was background noise. It mattered, but there was always a paycheck, a career, and plenty of time to recover from whatever came next. Now that I am retired, I notice the same headlines land differently. They feel closer and more personal.
I suspect many people nearing or early in retirement feel the same way. This article is my attempt to think clearly about that feeling: why it is reasonable, what history tells us, and how to plan and live well without knowing what comes next. I spent much of my career in operations research, a field built around making good decisions under uncertainty. Some of its lessons turn out to be useful far beyond the factory floor.
